According to multi-party estimates and estimates, China's new PV installed capacity in 2023 is expected to exceed expectations, accounting for the proportion of global PV new installed capacity is also expected to further increase.

"Every year in December is generally the hottest month for new PV installations. From the industry point of view, China's new PV installations will not be excluded in 2023 will be close to 200GW, a significant increase again year-on-year." January 3, a leading photovoltaic enterprises related people said in an interview with the media.

It is expected to exceed expectations again.

According to industry statistics, in December 2023, China has about 17GW of centralized photovoltaic power plants to achieve grid connection.

From the first three quarters of 2023 data, China's centralized PV accounted for 47.9 of China's new PV installed capacity. That is to say, if there is no big change in the proportion of centralized photovoltaic in December 2023, according to the above data, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in China is expected to reach 35GW in that month.

Previously released national power industry statistics from January to November 2023 showed that the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 21.32GW in November 2023 and 163 GW from January to November 2023.

According to this calculation, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2023 is likely to exceed 190GW, is expected to be close to 198GW.

Data show that in 2021, China's new PV installed 55GW, accounting for 31% of the world's 175GW in the year; in 2022, China's new PV installed 87GW, accounting for 36% of the world's 240GW.

█ Forecast of new installed capacity has been raised again and again

In December 2023, at the 2023 Photovoltaic Industry Annual Conference, Wang Bohua, Honorary Chairman of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, predicted that in 2023, global solar energy investment will reach US $382 billion, while oil investment will reach US $371 billion. This is also the history of solar energy investment. For the first time over oil. It is estimated that by 2030, renewable energy power generation will account for half of the country, and the global photovoltaic installed capacity will exceed 5000GW.

At that time, when talking about the forecast of global and China's photovoltaic market size in 2023, Wang Bohua said that the forecast of new global photovoltaic installations in 2023 would be raised for the second time, from 305GW-350GW to 345GW-390GW, with overseas markets dominated by Europe, the United States, India and Brazil. At the same time, the forecast of China's new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2023 will be raised for the second time, from 120GW-140GW to 160GW-180GW. Centralized and distributed development will be carried out simultaneously. Large base projects will become an important support for the growth of centralized projects.

In fact, as early as July 2023, the forecast for new PV installations has been raised once.

At the main forum of the seminar on the review of the development of the photovoltaic industry in the first half of 2023 and the outlook for the situation in the second half of 2023 held in July 2023, Wang Bohua said that the association raised the forecast of China's new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2023 from 95GW-120GW to 120GW-140GW. At the same time, the association also raised the global PV new installed capacity forecast from 280GW-330GW to 305GW-350GW in 2023.

Wang Bohua said at the time that the future market will be more difficult to predict due to uncertainties such as consumption, market-oriented electricity transactions, and the progress of the construction of source network and storage.

█ China's total installed capacity of renewable energy power generation accounts for more than 50%

The latest data from the National Energy Administration show that renewable energy has become a new force in ensuring power supply in my country, with an installed capacity of 1.45 billion kilowatts, accounting for more than 50% of the country's total installed power generation capacity, historically exceeding the installed capacity of thermal power. At present, the total installed power generation capacity of about 2.9 billion kilowatts.

According to the data released by the 2024 National Energy work Conference held in December 2023, since 2023, renewable energy has generated 3 trillion kwh, accounting for about 1/3 of the electricity consumption of the whole society. Wind power photovoltaic power generation has exceeded the domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents in the same period, accounting for more than 15% of the electricity consumption of the whole society.

The National Energy Administration is accelerating the development of wind power and solar power. The construction of large-scale wind power photovoltaic bases is progressing smoothly. As of the end of November 2023, the first batch has been completed and connected to the grid by 45.16 million kilowatts, and the second and third batches have been approved to exceed 50 million kilowatts, and construction is starting one after another. The total installed capacity of scenery in the country has exceeded 1 billion kilowatts, and its dominant position in the newly installed power capacity has been further consolidated. The scale of household photovoltaic has exceeded 0.1 billion kilowatts, covering more than 500 million farmers.

At the same time, thermal power is a guaranteed power source. At present, the coal storage of power plants across the country has remained at a historical high of more than 0.2 billion tons, and the available days are about 26 days.

The above-mentioned meeting emphasized that the energy work in 2024 should be based on my country's energy resource endowment, adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress, first establishing and then breaking, and making every effort to increase energy production and supply; vigorously improve the level of safe and reliable substitution of new energy, and accelerate the promotion Energy green and low-carbon transformation; focus on promoting the integration of technology and industry; actively promote power market-oriented transactions.